Carnival Game Tycoon Lecture Notes: Lesson 2						Name:__________________
Delta College STEM Explorer									Hour:______

I. Theoretical Probability vs. Experimental Probability
A.	 ________________  Probability: a mathematical calculation of the _________________________ of a chance experiment.
i.	1.  Ex. There is a ____ or _____ chance of a couple having a __________ as opposed to a _________.
ii.	2.  Ex. There is a ____ or _____ chance of me picking the correct # from 1 to 10.
B.	 ________________  Probability: the ____________ results of a chance experiment when put into practice.
i.	1.  Ex. A couple has ___ girls, and only ___ boy.
ii.	2.  Ex. It takes me only ___ tries to pick the correct number from 1-10.

•	 Coin Flip Activity #2

C.	Expectations vs. ______________
1.	It is expected that a flipped coin coming up heads should have a theoretical probability of _____ or _____.
2.	The results of our first 4 flips was _____ or ______.
3.	The results of our 60 flips was _____ or _____.
4.	As the number of trials increases the ___________________  ____________________ gets closer to the ___________________  ____________________.

II. Using Probability Trees to Predict Outcomes
A.	Probability Tree: A _______________ representation of the pathways to possible outcomes.
1.	What are the chances of rolling H, H?_______ or _________
2.	…H, T? _____ or _____
3.	…H,H,H,H? _____ or _____
4.	…H,T,H,T?  _____ or _____
B.	To calculate probabilities of ________________events using a probability tree, the fractions are______________.
1.	ex. 20 Heads in a row: ½ x ½ x ½ …(20) = _________________ or __________________